- Trend Uptrend
- Momentum Overbought
- MACD Above signal
- Regime Golden cross
Model projection · 7 days $103.18 (+0.00%)
Damped-Holt point forecast 7 days ahead, anchored to the live spot price. The signal stack above carries the bulk of the directional information; treat the dollar value as one input among many.
- Model MAPE
- 7.2%
- Naive MAPE
- 6.6%
- Skill
- -8%
- Sessions
- 30
Out-of-sample backtest over the last 30 trading sessions: 7.2% MAPE on 7 days forecasts vs 6.6% MAPE for a naive 'no change' baseline.
WTI Crude Oil: 7-day damped Holt forecast (damping φ=0.90) points to $103.18 (+0.00% from $103.18), with an 80% interval of $93.72–$112.64 (±9.2%). RSI(14) is 75.8 (overbought), MACD histogram is above signal (bullish), and the 50/200-day MA configuration suggests an uptrend. Recent 30-step backtest: 7.2% MAPE on 7-day-ahead forecasts — model underperforms naive baseline by 8%. Confidence: 41%.