- Trend Uptrend
- Momentum Overbought
- MACD Below signal
- Regime Golden cross
Model projection · 7 days $98.38 (+1.84%)
Damped-Holt point forecast 7 days ahead, anchored to the live spot price. The signal stack above carries the bulk of the directional information; treat the dollar value as one input among many.
- Model MAPE
- 8.2%
- Naive MAPE
- 8.8%
- Skill
- +7%
- Sessions
- 30
Out-of-sample backtest over the last 30 trading sessions: 8.2% MAPE on 7 days forecasts vs 8.8% MAPE for a naive 'no change' baseline.
WTI Crude Oil: 7-day damped Holt forecast (damping φ=0.95) points to $98.38 (+1.85% from $96.60), with an 80% interval of $88.26–$108.50 (±10.5%). RSI(14) is 71.9 (overbought), MACD histogram is below signal (bearish), and the 50/200-day MA configuration suggests an uptrend. Recent 30-step backtest: 8.2% MAPE on 7-day-ahead forecasts — model essentially matches naive baseline. Confidence: 34%.