- Trend Uptrend
- Momentum Bearish
- MACD Below signal
- Regime Golden cross
Model projection · 7 days $74.14 (+0.00%)
Damped-Holt point forecast 7 days ahead, anchored to the live spot price. The signal stack above carries the bulk of the directional information; treat the dollar value as one input among many.
- Model MAPE
- 9.3%
- Naive MAPE
- 7.9%
- Skill
- -18%
- Sessions
- 30
Out-of-sample backtest over the last 30 trading sessions: 9.3% MAPE on 7 days forecasts vs 7.9% MAPE for a naive 'no change' baseline.
WTI Crude Oil: 7-day damped Holt forecast (damping φ=0.90) points to $74.14 (+0.00% from $74.14), with an 80% interval of $65.27–$83.01 (±12.0%). RSI(14) is 30.9 (bearish), MACD histogram is below signal (bearish), and the 50/200-day MA configuration suggests an uptrend. Recent 30-step backtest: 9.3% MAPE on 7-day-ahead forecasts — model underperforms naive baseline by 18%. Confidence: 33%.